- NSW Regional Outlook
- VIC Regional Outlook
- QLD Regional Outlook
- SA Regional Outlook
- WA Regional Outlook
Sydney has been the standout city for home value growth over recent years. Since values began rising in June 2012 home values are 61.3% higher and since the end of 2008 they are up 90.2%. Sydney home values have increased by 9.1% over the past year with house values 9.0% higher and unit values up 9.4%. Sydney’s annual rate of home value growth is greater than all other capital cities however, the rate of growth has slowed substantially from its peak of 18.4% in July 2015.
Sydney sales volumes are falling however, record high levels of off-the-plan unit sales over recent years indicates that volumes will likely be revised higher over the coming months and years as settlements occur. CoreLogic estimates that over the three months to July 2016 there were 20,157 settled house and unit sales which was -22.2% lower than over the same period the previous year.
While values continue to rise, rents are increasing at historically low rates with house rents -0.1% lower over the year and unit rents up 2.3% over the year. The result of stronger value growth than rental growth has been yield compression. Sydney gross rental yields are now at historic lows of 2.9% for houses and 3.9% for units.
Homes continue to sell faster in Sydney than in most other capital cities with the typical home selling in 40 days. While only Melbourne has a quicker rate of sale, at the same time last year it typically took 26 days to sell a Sydney home.
NSW Regional Outlook
The regional housing market of NSW has continued to see dwelling values move higher, albeit at a more moderate pace than growth in Sydney, with house values moving 4.6% higher over the past 12 months. Being such a diverse market, growth rates across the NSW regional areas have been varied with mining related regions generally showing a slowdown in conditions, while coastal lifestyle markets are seeing stronger conditions.
Regional NSW housing markets have seen a slowdown in transaction activity over the past year however, the magnitude of the fall has been lower than that in Sydney. CoreLogic estimates there were 14,570 house and unit sales across regional NSW over the three months to July 2016, which is -10.6% lower than over the same three month period last year.
Regional rental rates are up 2.6% over the past year and the typical regional dwelling is attracting a gross rental yield of 5.5% which has fallen over the year from 5.6%.
Melbourne home values have increased by 73.7% since the end of 2008 and are 42.0% higher over the current growth phase. As a result, Melbourne home values have recorded the second highest cumulative growth of all capital cities. Over the past year, Melbourne dwelling values are 7.5% higher with house values having increased by 8.0% which is more than double the rate of increase for units at 3.2%. The rate of annual growth has slowed after dwelling value growth peaked at 14.2% in September 2015.
Over the three months to July 2016 there were 21,030 house and unit sales across Melbourne which was -19.8% lower than the same period last year.
Rental rates for Melbourne houses have increased by 2.1% over the past year compared to a 1.6% increase in unit rents. Although rents are rising, values have increased faster pushing gross rental yields to record lows. Gross rental yields are currently recorded at 2.8% for houses and 4.0% for units.
Homes are currently selling quicker in Melbourne than they are in any other capital city. The typical home is selling after 36 days compared to 33 days at the same time a year ago.
VIC Regional Outlook
While values have risen at a fairly rapid rate over the past year in Melbourne, regional Victoria’s house values have shown much more moderate levels of growth. Over the 12 months to June 2016, regional Victorian house values have increased by 1.6%.
Transaction volumes across the regional area of the state have also fallen over the past 12 months. The number of dwellings sales was -12.1% lower over the three months to July 2016 compared with the same three month period last year.
Average weekly rents across Regional Victoria saw a 1.0% increase over the past year with the typical weekly rent now $258/week. Gross rental yields have fallen slightly over the past 12 months from 5.4% to 5.3%. The average rental returns on a regional property are substantially higher than what is being achieved in Melbourne where yields are at record lows.
Home values in Brisbane have shown only moderate growth over recent years, up by a cumulative 12.9% over the five years to July 2016. Over the past year, Brisbane dwelling values have increased by 3.9% with unit values rising by 1.9% which was less than half the 4.1% increase in house values. The discrepancy between growth in house and unit values is set to continue with a record-high pipeline of units under construction in the city.
Over the three months to July 2016 there were 11,737 settled sales across Brisbane which was -23.6% lower than over the same period in 2015.
Rental rates across Brisbane are falling at their fastest annual pace on record which has dragged gross rental yields lower over the past year. House rents have fallen by -0.9% over the past year compared to a -1.3% fall in unit rents. Despite gross rental yields falling they remain some of the highest across the capital cities at 4.2% for houses and 5.3% for units.
Brisbane homes are taking slightly longer to sell currently than they were a year ago. Homes currently take 58 days to sell compared to 51 days at the same time last year.
QLD Regional Outlook
Dwelling values across the regional areas of Queensland have shown a diverse performance with resources driven markets continuing to show a weak performance while lifestyle markets are showing a consistent bounce back in values. Across the broad regional area of Queensland house values have risen by just 0.1% over the past twelve months.
Buyer demand across the regional markets of Queensland has fallen over the year, with transaction numbers moving -13.1% lower over the three months to July 2016 compared with the same period a year ago.
Rental markets have softened across the regional areas of Queensland, with the average weekly rental rate falling -5.0% over the year to $316. Gross yields remain strong although they have eased from 5.5% a year ago to 5.4% currently.
Adelaide home values have increased by 4.8% over the year to June 2016 with house values rising by 5.0% and units increasing at about half that pace, up 2.6%. Although values are rising, the rate of growth across Adelaide has been quite moderate over recent years with values increasing by just 9.9% over the past five years.
The number of homes selling in Adelaide has declined over the past year however, relative to the other capital cities the drop in sales has been fairly moderate. Over the three months to July 2016 there were 6,894 settled house and unit sales in Adelaide which was -7.3% lower than over the same 3 month period last year.
Rental rates in Adelaide for both houses and units have fallen over the past year down -0.5% and -0.7% respectively. With values rising and rents falling gross rental yields have softened over the past 12 months. In June 2015 gross rental yields were recorded at 4.2% for houses and 4.7% for units compared to 4.0% and 4.6% respectively in June 2016.
Homes in Adelaide are selling slightly quicker than they were a year ago, currently they typically take 52 days to sell compared to 55 days a year ago.
SA Regional Outlook
Dwelling values across the aggregated regional areas of South Australia were -2.6% lower over the past twelve months, contrasting the moderate rise in values recorded over the year in Adelaide.
In line with the fall in values and relatively soft buyer demand outside of the state capital, there has also been a decline in transactions over the year across Regional SA. Over the three months to July 2016 there were 2,048 house and unit sales which was -1.6% lower than a year ago.
Regional rental markets have shown a stronger performance, with weekly rental rates increasing by 1.2% over the past twelve months to reach $240/week and gross rental yields across regional South Australia are tracking at a healthy 6.1% gross on average, which is up from 5.8% a year ago.
Dwelling values in Perth have trended lower for some time now and have declined by -5.6% over the past year which is their greatest annual decline since November 2011. Perth home values reached an end of month peak in December 2014 and have since fallen by -8.3%. Over the past year, house values have fallen by -5.6% compared to a slightly larger -5.8% fall in unit values. While the rate of decline had slowed over recent months it gathered pace in July.
The number of home sales has also been declining with home values however, the rate of decline in sales has started to slow over recent months. CoreLogic estimates that over the three months to July 2016 there were 7,764 settled dwelling sales in Perth which was -5.4% lower than over the same time last year.
Although home values are declining in Perth, rental rates are falling at a more rapid pace with house rents -9.3% lower over the year and unit rents -7.7% lower. As a result of larger rental falls than value falls gross rental yields have fallen over the year. In June 2015, gross rental yields for houses were 3.9% and yields for units were 4.5% compared to 3.8% for houses and 4.4% for units in June 2016.
As home values have fallen, selling a property has become more difficult and taken longer with the average number of days on market currently recorded at 79 days, up from 63 days a year ago.
WA Regional Outlook
The regional markets of Western Australia can broadly be characterised as being driven by the resources sector, agricultural markets or by lifestyle factors. In aggregate, regional Western Australian home values have fallen by -5.9% over the past twelve months. The fall reflects the weakness across resource markets and a weakening in buyer demand.
In line with the fall in values over the past year, demand for housing has also fallen, however not to the same extent. CoreLogic estimates there were 2,087 house and unit sales over the three months to July 2016 across the regional markets of Western Australia, which is -6.0% lower than a year ago.
Rental markets have also eased, with the average weekly rental rate across the regional areas of the state falling by a substantial -10.0% over the year. The typical regional dwelling is now renting for $334/week. Gross rental yields have increased from 5.8% a year ago to 6.5% currently.
Darwin home values have continued to decline over the past year with values falling by -7.6% over the past year, their largest annual fall since January 2012. Darwin dwelling values are now -12.7% lower than their most recent end of month peak in May 2014. Over the past 12 months, Darwin house values have fallen by -5.9% compared to a significantly greater -14.6% fall in unit values. Despite the weak growth recently, only a couple of years ago Darwin had recorded the greatest rise in values over the previous decade.
The number of property sales in Darwin is continuing to decline however, the magnitude of these falls has begun to slow. CoreLogic estimates that there were 624 house and unit sales over the three months to July 2016 which was -3.6% lower than over the same period in 2015.
Darwin rents have fallen significantly over the past year with house rents -12.5% lower and unit rents down -29.0%. Gross rental yields have fallen substantially over the year due to these falls. Gross rental yields for houses have fallen to 5.3% from 5.7% a year ago while unit yields have fallen to 4.6% from 5.5%.
With values, sales volumes and rents falling there has been a large increase in the time it takes to sell a home. A year ago homes were taking 71 days to sell compared to 88 days currently.
Home values in Canberra have increased by 2.9% over the past year. Looking at the split between houses and units shows that house values have increased by 3.1% over the past year compared to a -0.4% fall in units. Over the past five years, home values in Canberra have increased only moderately, up by 10.5%.
Transaction number are slightly higher than they were a year ago. CoreLogic estimates that over the three months to July 2016 there were 2,125 house and unit sales. Based on this data, transaction volumes are 5.2% higher than they were a year ago.
Canberra is one of the few capital cities in which rents are increasing at a faster pace than they were a year ago with weekly house rents 1.8% higher over the year and unit rents up 2.4%. Gross rental yields have fallen from 4.1% a year ago to 4.0% currently while unit yields have increased from 5.0% to 5.1%.
The typical Canberra home is currently selling after 55 days which is similar but slightly higher than the 53 days a year ago.
Home value growth in Hobart has accelerated over the past year with dwelling values increasing 6.2% over the past year. House values have increased by 5.6% over the past 12 months compared to a 12.9% increase in unit values. Although home values have increased at the third fastest annual rate of all capital cities over the past year, over the past decade, home values in Hobart have increased by the lowest of all capital cities, up by a total of just 15.5%.
Despite value growth picking up over the past year, the number of home sales is trending slightly lower. Over the three months to July 2016, CoreLogic estimates that there were 1,084 house and unit sales across the city which was -9.0% lower than at the same time in 2015.
Rental rates in Hobart have increased over the past year with the rate of increase accelerating. Over the past year, house rents have increased by 5.4% compared to a 14.2% increase in unit rents. Gross rental yields are unchanged over the past year at 5.2% for houses and 5.3% for units.
Conditions for those selling their homes have improved significantly over the past 12 months. A year ago, the typical Hobart home was taking 78 days to sell compared to 69 days to sell currently.