- NSW Regional Outlook
- VIC Regional Outlook
- QLD Regional Outlook
- SA Regional Outlook
- WA Regional Outlook
Over recent times, Sydney has recorded the greatest increase in home values of all capital cities, with dwelling values up 52.7% since the current growth cycle started in June 2012. Over the past year, Sydney dwelling values have increased by 8.9% which makes it the capital city with the second highest annual rate of home value growth following Melbourne. Annual growth in home values has been slowing since peaking at 18.4% in July of last year. Over the past 12 months, house values have increased by 8.4% compared to an 11.5% lift in unit values.
The number of housing transactions has eased over the past year however, it should be noted that the high level of off-the-plan unit sales suggests that volumes are likely to be revised higher over the coming years as those sales move to settlement. CoreLogic RP Data estimates that, based on settled sales, there were 20,650 house and unit sales across the Sydney housing market over the three months ending April 2016, which was -20.4% lower than the same three month period in 2015.
Sydney rents are rising at a much slower pace than dwelling values, with house rents increasing 1.0% over the year and unit rents up 2.6%. With rental growth much slower than value growth, gross rental yields have shifted to record low levels for houses and units. The typical Sydney house now has a gross rental yield of 3.1% and the typical unit yield is 4.0%.
Further demonstrating the current market conditions in Sydney, the average days on market shows that the typical home is selling after 36 days. While this is still a fairly rapid rate of sale, it has increased from 27 days at the same time last year.
NSW Regional Outlook
The regional housing market of NSW has continued to see dwelling values move higher, albeit at a more moderate pace than growth in Sydney, with house values moving 6.5% higher over the past 12 months. Being such a diverse market, growth rates across the NSW regional areas have been varied with mining related regions generally showing a slowdown in conditions, while coastal lifestyle markets are seeing stronger conditions.
Regional NSW housing markets have seen a slowdown in transaction activity over the past year however, the magnitude of the fall has been lower than that in Sydney. CoreLogic RP Data estimates there were 13,618 house and unit sales across regional NSW over the three months to April 2016, which is -12.4% lower than over the same three month period last year.
Regional rental rates are up 1.6% over the past year and the typical regional dwelling is attracting a gross rental yield of 5.6% which has fallen over the year from 5.8%.
Home values in Melbourne have increased by a cumulative 37.1% throughout the current growth phase, resulting in the city having the second highest capital city cumulative value growth during the period. Melbourne has recorded home value increases of 10.1% over the past 12 months, which is the fastest annual rate of growth for any capital city. House values have increased by a substantially higher amount over the period (10.8%) than unit values (4.7%). Although values are still up more than 10% over the past year, annual growth is decelerating after it peaked at 14.2% in September 2015.
Transaction numbers were 16.3% lower over the three months to April 2016 compared with the same period a year ago, suggesting buyer demand has slowed over the year.
Melbourne house rents increased by 1.8% over the past year while unit rents were up a lower 0.7%. The rate of rental growth has slowed over the year and with values rising at a faster pace, gross rental yields have fallen to new record lows. Gross rental yields for Melbourne houses have fallen to 2.9% from 3.2% a year ago and unit yields have fallen from 4.1% to 4.0%.
Melbourne is experiencing a rapid rate of sale for homes across the city currently although days on market has increased a little over recent months. The typical Melbourne home is taking 34 days to sell which is faster than the 36 days it took at the same time last year.
VIC Regional Outlook
While values are rising at a rate of more than 10% over the past year in Melbourne, regional Victoria’s house values have shown much more moderate levels of growth. Over the 12 months to March 2016, regional Victorian house values have increase by 1.1%.
Transaction volumes across the regional area of the state have also fallen over the past 12 months. The number of dwellings sales was -5.0% lower over the three months to April 2016 compared with the same three month period last year. Interestingly, the decline in sales is less than half of that recorded across Melbourne.
Average weekly rents across Regional Victoria saw a 1.8% increase over the past year with the typical weekly rent now $259/week. Gross rental yields have fallen slightly over the past 12 months from 5.5% to 5.4%. The average rental returns on a regional property are substantially higher than what is being achieved in Melbourne where yields are at record lows.
Home values in Brisbane have increased by 6.2% over the 12 months to April 2016 which is the cities fastest annual rate of value growth since September 2014. Brisbane’s housing market has seen little growth over recent years, with home values rising at an average rate of 2.0% annually over the past five years. Over the past 12 months, house values have increased by 6.7%, while unit values have increased by a much lower 1.2% showing a substantial difference in performance between the two property types.
Transaction numbers across Brisbane are lower compared to the same period last year, with the number of home sales moving -9.8% lower over the three months to April 2016 compared with the same period in 2015.
Brisbane’s rental market has recorded falling rents over the past year with house rents falling by -0.5% and unit rents -1.3% lower. With rents down, value growth has outpaced rental growth over the past year which has resulted in an easing in yields. Gross rental yields for houses have fallen from 4.5% a year ago to 4.2% currently and unit yields are currently 5.3% down from 5.4% a year ago.
The typical Brisbane home was selling in 55 days at the end of March 2016. The average length of time on market is somewhat longer than the 46 days it was taking a year ago.
QLD Regional Outlook
Dwelling values across the regional areas of Queensland have shown a diverse performance with resources driven markets continuing to show a weak performance while lifestyle markets are showing a consistent bounce back in values. Across the broad regional area of Queensland house values have risen by 1.7% over the past twelve months.
Buyer demand across the regional markets of Queensland has fallen over the year, with transaction numbers moving -9.7% lower over the three months to April 2016 compared with the same period a year ago.
Rental markets have softened across the regional areas of Queensland, with the average weekly rental rate falling -5.3% over the year to $319. Gross yields remain strong although they have eased from 5.6% a year ago to 5.4% currently.
Dwelling values have risen by 3.6% across the Adelaide housing market over the past twelve months, with detached housing values (3.4%) increasing at a slower pace than unit values (5.7%). Home values in Adelaide have shown moderate levels of growth compared with Sydney and Melbourne over the current cycle with values having risen by a total of 14.1%.
The number of homes selling across the Adelaide housing market has been relatively unchanged compared to a year ago, suggesting fairly steady housing demand. Over the three months to April 2016 CoreLogic RP Data estimates there were 6,540 house and unit sales across the Adelaide housing market which is -1.0% lower than at the same time a year ago.
Adelaide rental rates are moderately higher over the past year, with house rents increasing 0.4% compared to a 1.3% rise in unit rents. With rents falling and values still rising, gross rental yields for houses have shifted lower from 4.2% a year ago to 4.0% currently while unit yields have fallen from 4.8% to 4.6%.
In line with the theme of fairly steady housing market conditions, typical selling times are virtually unchanged over the past year at 61 days compared to 62 days a year ago.
SA Regional Outlook
Dwelling values across the aggregated regional areas of South Australia were -1.2% lower over the past twelve months, contrasting the moderate rise in values recorded over the year in Adelaide.
In line with the fall in values and relatively soft buyer demand outside of the state capital, there has also been a decline in transactions over the year across Regional SA. Over the three months to April 2016 there were 1,865 house and unit sales which was -8.4% lower than a year ago.
Regional rental markets have shown a stronger performance, with weekly rental rates increasing by 0.9% over the past twelve months to reach $239/week and gross rental yields across regional South Australia are tracking at a healthy 6.1% gross on average, which is up from 5.9% a year ago.
Home values in Perth have fallen by -2.1% over the past 12 months and are now -4.2% lower than they were at their peak. Although home values continue to trend lower, over recent months there has been signs that the rate of decline has slowed. Looking at the split between houses and units in terms of value changes, house values have fallen by -2.2% over the past year compared to a 0.1% rise in unit values. Although value declines may be slowing, we expect that we are still a long way from seeing growth in home values returning to the Perth market.
As conditions across the Perth housing market continue to moderate we have seen a slowdown in buyer demand. CoreLogic RP Data estimates that there were 8,602 houses and units sold over the three months to April 2016, which was -3.1% lower than at the same time last year.
Rental markets across the city have also slowed with weekly rents tracking -8.8% lower than a year ago for houses and -9.4% lower for units. Gross rental yields for houses have shifted from 4.0% a year ago to 3.7% currently while unit yields have fallen from 4.8% to 4.3%.
The typical Perth dwelling was taking 61 days to sell in March 2016, with this figure increasing from 48 days at the same time a year ago.
WA Regional Outlook
The regional markets of Western Australia can broadly be characterised as being driven by the resources sector, agricultural markets or by lifestyle factors. In aggregate, regional Western Australian home values have fallen by -6.1% over the past twelve months. The fall reflects the weakness across resource markets and a weakening in buyer demand.
In line with the fall in values over the past year, demand for housing has also fallen, however not to the same extent. CoreLogic RP Data estimates there were 2,369 house and unit sales over the three months to April 2016 across the regional markets of Western Australia, which is -0.5% lower than a year ago.
Rental markets have also eased, with the average weekly rental rate across the regional areas of the state falling by a substantial -11.1% over the year. The typical regional dwelling is now renting for $337/week. Gross rental yields have increased slightly over the year from 5.9% a year ago to 6.01% currently.
Darwin’s housing market has continued to record falls in home values over the past year. Over the 12 months to April 2016, Darwin dwelling values have fallen by -3.7% and are now -6.2% lower than their recent end of month peak. Darwin house values have fallen by -5.2% over the past year compared to a 2.4% increase in unit values. Although Darwin home values are now declining, they have increased by 13.3% over the current phase after strong growth conditions during early 2012 and 2013.
As values have declined there has also been a downturn in the number of transactions reflecting less buyer demand. CoreLogic RP Data estimates there were 612 house and unit sales across the Darwin market over the three months to April 2016, -5.0% lower than what was recorded over the same period in 2015.
As buyer numbers move lower and stock levels rise, homes are selling after an average of 103 days across Darwin, which is higher than a year ago when the typical Darwin dwelling took 92 days to sell. Darwin homes are taking much longer to sell than the other capital cities.
Rental rates across Darwin have fallen substantially over the past year, down -12.6%. Although there has been a sharp decline in rents, the city is still attracting some of the highest average gross rental yields of any capital city. House yields sit at 5.2% compared to 5.7% a year ago and unit yields are 5.0% down from 5.9% a year ago. While yields are comparatively firm the increasing challenge in the city is finding tenants for the rental properties.
Home values in Canberra have seen an uplift in the rate of growth over the past year, with dwelling values up 4.5%. The increasing growth in home values is being driven by the detached housing sector, with house values increasing by 4.8% while the unit market values have increased by just 1.2% over the past twelve months. Over the current growth phase, Canberra home values have increased by a moderate 11.7%.
Transaction numbers are lower than they were a year ago. CoreLogic RP Data estimates there were 2,061 house and unit sales transacted over the three months to April 2016 across Canberra. Based on this data transaction volumes are -4.2% lower than over the same three month period last year.
The typical Canberra home is selling in 48 days, which is a little slower than the 40 days they were taking to sell at the same time last year.
Local rental markets were recording falls a year ago however, growth has now returned to rental markets with weekly rents increasing over the past year by 2.6% for houses and by 1.4% for units. Over the past year, gross rental yields for houses have moved from 4.2% to 4.1% while unit yields are unchanged at 5.0%.
The Hobart housing market has recorded relatively steady housing market conditions over the past several years however, dwelling values are only slightly higher than what they were at the beginning of 2009. The local housing market has seen home values across the city have increased by a moderate 1.1% over the past year and are now 11.8% higher over the current growth phase. Over the past year, Hobart house values have increased by 0.8% compared to a 3.2% increase across smaller and more volatile unit market.
Buyer activity across the Hobart market has remained fairly flat over recent years. Over the three months to April 2016, CoreLogic RP Data estimates there were 1,130 house and unit sales transacted across the Greater Hobart region, which is -7.8% lower than over the same period last year.
Vendors are starting to see much better selling conditions, with the typical Hobart dwelling averaging 38 days to sell, a lower rate of sale compared to a year ago when the average selling time was 67 days.
Hobart dwelling rental rates have shown moderate increases over the past year, house rents are 1.0% higher and unit rents have increased 2.2%. Rental yields are currently recorded at 5.3% for both house and units. 12 months ago, yields were recorded at 5.2% for houses and 5.3% for units.