Key takeaways
The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in June, with its next decision due on 11 August 2026
Economists hold differing views on whether the RBA will leave the cash rate unchanged or increase it later this year
Learn what the latest interest rate outlook could mean for your home loan, borrowing power and property plans
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% following three increases earlier in 2026, but the outlook for interest rates remains uncertain.
While inflation has eased from its peak, the RBA has said future decisions will continue to depend on incoming economic data and the evolving economic outlook.
For homeowners, first-home buyers and investors, understanding the broader interest rate outlook may be just as important as predicting the next cash rate decision.
Where is the cash rate now?
The RBA increased the cash rate by 25 basis points in February, March and May 2026 before leaving it unchanged at 4.35% in June.
In its June statement, the RBA said inflation had eased but remained above target and reiterated that future decisions would depend on incoming economic data and the evolving outlook.
RBA cash rate in 2026
Date | Decision | Cash Rate |
|---|---|---|
February 2026 | +0.25% | 3.85% |
March 2026 | +0.25% | 4.10% |
May 2026 | +0.25% | 4.35% |
June 2026 | Hold | 4.35% |
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
A look at how RBA interest rates have moved over time
While recent rate increases have attracted significant attention, interest rates have moved through many cycles over the past several decades.
The RBA adjusts the cash rate in response to a range of factors, including inflation, employment, economic growth, and global conditions.
Looking at interest rates over a longer period can help provide context for current settings and highlight that monetary policy typically changes over time as economic conditions evolve.
Why has the RBA raised rates?
The RBA uses interest rates as one of its main tools to manage inflation. Higher rates can reduce demand across the economy by increasing borrowing costs and encouraging saving.
According to the RBA, several factors continue to contribute to inflation pressures, including:
Higher energy and fuel costs
Persistent services inflation
Tight labour market conditions
Ongoing capacity constraints in parts of the economy
Although inflation has moderated considerably from the highs seen in 2022 and 2023, the Bank has indicated there is still more work to do before inflation is sustainably within target.
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Will interest rates rise again in 2026?
This remains one of the most closely watched questions. The short answer is that nobody knows for certain.
The RBA has repeatedly stated that future decisions will depend on economic data rather than a predetermined path.
Key indicators likely to influence future decisions include:
Inflation data
Employment and wage growth
Household spending
Global economic conditions
Energy prices
Economists continue to hold differing views on the outlook. Commonwealth Bank, NAB and ANZ expect the cash rate to remain unchanged through the rest of 2026, while Westpac continues to forecast one further increase.
Finder's latest RBA Cash Rate Survey also found economists remain divided on whether another increase will be needed this year.
Rather than focusing solely on forecasts, borrowers may benefit from considering how their finances would cope if rates were to remain elevated for longer.
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Possible rate paths and what they could mean
Scenario | What this could look like |
Rates remain around current levels | The RBA keeps the cash rate unchanged while monitoring inflation and economic conditions. |
One further increase | Inflation remains persistent, and the RBA decides another increase is needed. |
Rates begin to ease | Some economists expect the RBA could begin lowering the cash rate in 2027 if inflation eases sustainably. |
Note: These scenarios are illustrative only.
The RBA has repeatedly stated that future decisions will be guided by incoming economic data, including inflation, wages, and broader economic conditions.
Views differ on the timing of any future moves, reinforcing the RBA's position that decisions remain data dependent.
Scenario planning: What should buyers, homeowners, and investors do?
Interest rates are only one part of the property decision-making process. While future RBA decisions remain uncertain, understanding how different scenarios could affect your plans may help you prepare.
Scenario 1: Rates stay around current levels through 2026
What happens?
Interest rates remain around current levels while the RBA waits for further evidence that inflation is returning sustainably to target.
Property markets may continue to vary by location, with buyers and sellers adjusting to higher borrowing costs.
What to consider
Review your budget, borrowing power, and loan structure. If you're planning to buy, refinance, or invest, understanding your options early may help you make more informed decisions.
Scenario 2: One further increase
What happens?
If inflation remains more persistent than expected, the RBA may decide that one further increase is needed to help return inflation sustainably to its target range. Borrowing costs could rise further, which may affect household budgets and borrowing capacity.
What to consider
Review your budget and loan repayments and consider whether your current loan structure still suits your circumstances. If you're planning to buy or refinance, understanding your borrowing power may help you prepare for different interest rate scenarios.
Scenario 3: Rates stay higher for longer
What happens?
Inflation remains above target, or global economic uncertainty persists, prompting the RBA to keep rates restrictive for longer.
Borrowing costs remain elevated, and affordability remains a key focus for many households.
What to consider
Rather than trying to predict market movements, focus on affordability, cash flow, and your long-term financial goals. For some buyers and investors, understanding what is achievable today may be more valuable than waiting for conditions to change.
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What role could the Federal Budget play?
While the RBA operates independently from government, fiscal policy can still affect broader economic conditions.
The 2026-27 Federal Budget proposed several housing and taxation reforms aimed at improving housing affordability and encouraging new housing supply.
These include proposed changes to:
Negative gearing arrangements for future property purchases
Capital gains tax concessions
Housing supply incentives
The reforms have now been legislated and will largely take effect from 1 July 2027.
They limit negative gearing for residential property investments to new builds and replace the 50% capital gains tax (CGT) discount for eligible taxpayers with cost base indexation and a 30% minimum tax on capital gains, subject to the legislated transitional arrangements.
The Australian Government has said the reforms are intended to encourage investment in new housing supply and support housing affordability over time.
The full market impact remains uncertain and is likely to vary between locations and property types.
What could higher rates mean for homeowners?
For many homeowners, higher interest rates have translated into higher mortgage repayments.
If you've been focused on keeping up with recent rate changes, it may also be worth reviewing whether your current home loan still suits your needs.
Some homeowners are using this period to:
Compare their interest rate with current market offerings
Review loan features
Consider refinancing opportunities
Reassess household budgets
Even if you decide not to change lenders, understanding your options can provide greater confidence about your financial position.
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What could higher rates mean for refinancers?
Periods of rising rates often encourage borrowers to review their home loan. Some homeowners may discover they have not reviewed their loan for several years and are paying a higher rate than necessary.
Others may be exploring refinancing because:
Their fixed rate has expired
They want to access equity
Their financial circumstances have changed
They are looking to consolidate debt
An Aussie Broker can help you understand what options may be available based on your individual circumstances.
What could this mean for first-home buyers?
Higher interest rates can reduce borrowing capacity because lenders assess how much a borrower can afford to repay. That can make saving and purchasing more challenging.
At the same time, conditions vary significantly across Australia. Some markets continue to experience strong price growth, while others have seen more moderate activity.
For first-home buyers, preparation can be particularly important in a higher-rate environment.
This may include:
Understanding your borrowing power
Building a deposit and savings buffer
Exploring available government schemes
Obtaining pre-approval before searching for a property
While interest rates matter, they're only one part of the home-buying equation.
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What could this mean for investors?
Investors are navigating a more complex environment than they have in recent years.
Alongside higher interest rates, many are also assessing how the proposed Federal Budget tax reforms could affect future investment decisions.
If legislated, the proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax arrangements could influence investment strategies from July 2027 onwards.
However, investment decisions typically involve a range of factors, including:
Rental demand
Property cash flow
Borrowing capacity
Long-term capital growth potential
Tax considerations
Given the complexity of the proposed reforms, investors may wish to seek independent financial, legal and taxation advice.
What should Australians focus on now?
While headlines often focus on predicting the next RBA decision, most borrowers have greater control over their own finances than they do over interest rates.
Practical steps may include:
Reviewing your home loan
Understanding your borrowing power
Building a savings buffer
Considering how future rate changes may affect your budget
Seeking guidance before making major property decisions
No one can control where interest rates go next. But understanding your position today may help you feel more prepared for whatever comes next.
How Aussie can help
Whether you're buying your first home, reviewing your current loan, refinancing or investing, understanding your options is an important first step.
An Aussie Broker can help you:
Compare home loan options
Understand your borrowing power
Explore refinancing opportunities
Review your loan structure
Navigate changing market conditions
With over 1,000 Aussie Brokers across Australia, we're here to help you understand your options and make informed decisions about your home loan.
