Key takeaways:
Waiting to buy a home can have costs as well as benefits, particularly if property values, rents or borrowing conditions change while you're on the sidelines.
Property affordability is influenced by more than house prices, with interest rates and borrowing power playing a major role in what buyers can afford.
National home values remain near record highs despite softer market conditions in some cities, highlighting the difficulty of predicting future price movements.
Buyer opportunities may be improving as competition eases, giving some Australians more time to compare properties and negotiate.
Aussie Broker conversations can help borrowers understand the trade-offs between buying now and waiting, based on their own financial situation.
For the first time in several years, some home buyers appear to have something they have been craving: time.
Open homes are generally less crowded than they were during the post-pandemic boom. Auction clearance rates have softened. And in some markets, buyers have more stock to choose from and greater scope to negotiate.
That shift has created a new dilemma.
After years of feeling rushed by rising prices and fierce competition, many Australians are now wondering whether they should wait a little longer to see what happens next.
Will prices fall further? Will interest rates improve? Could a better opportunity be just around the corner?
It is an understandable question. Buying a home is often the largest financial commitment people will ever make, and few want to feel like they bought at the wrong time.
But while waiting can feel like the safer option, it is not without its own risks.
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Aussie Broker Vicki Fraser said many buyers are currently caught between wanting to act and worrying they could make the wrong decision.
“There are a lot of people saying, let us wait,” she said. “It is that analysis paralysis situation.”
Gerard Burg, Cotality's Head of Research for Australia, said conditions are becoming more favourable for buyers, but largely because affordability pressures have pushed some people out of the market.
“It's kind of coming to the advantage of buyers, but that's largely because buyers have been dropping out of the market,” he said.
“We've seen fewer home sales, and the amount of stock available for sale has been increasing. That is giving buyers more opportunities. They're not quite so rushed, and they have time to consider multiple different properties.”
That may provide welcome relief for buyers who have spent the past few years competing in an intense market. But it does not necessarily mean waiting will improve affordability.
The hidden cost of sitting on the sidelines
When buyers delay purchasing, they often focus on what they might gain.
Less attention is paid to what waiting may cost.
Australia's national dwelling value now sits at $941,864, according to Cotality's latest May Home Value Index, despite values remaining flat nationally through May. Over the past year, national dwelling values have still increased by 8.8%.
That means some buyers who delayed purchasing over the past year may now be facing higher prices than they originally budgeted for.
For illustration purposes, if a property valued at $941,864 today were to increase in value by 6% over the next 12 months, it could be worth approximately $998,000 at the end of that period.
That would represent an increase of around $56,000.
Note: This example is illustrative only and does not represent a forecast of future property values. Property prices may rise, fall or remain unchanged depending on market conditions, location and other factors. Individual affordability will also depend on factors such as income, deposit size, lending criteria and interest rates.
However, it highlights an important reality: waiting may involve costs as well as potential benefits.
For renters, that equation can become even more complex. Ongoing rent payments can make it harder to save, while inflation can gradually reduce the purchasing power of a deposit sitting in a savings account.
That does not mean buyers should rush into a purchase. It does mean that delaying a decision should be considered just as carefully as making one.
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Fraser added the softer conditions look very different from the market buyers faced only a year or two ago.
“We are in a very unique opportunity. There is less competition. There are fewer clearances and there is much more opportunity to negotiate,” she said.
For some buyers, that may mean being able to take more time, negotiate harder or secure a property that previously would have attracted significantly more competition.
An Aussie Broker can help borrowers understand how different scenarios may affect deposit requirements, repayments and borrowing capacity over time.
The challenge with trying to time the market
The idea of waiting for the perfect buying opportunity is appealing. The challenge is that property cycles are rarely predictable.
While some markets are clearly slowing, there is far less certainty around exactly how far prices could move, how long any downturn may last, or when conditions could begin improving again.
Burg said buyers with a long-term perspective can sometimes place too much emphasis on short-term market movements.
“The thing we tend to see is that if you're looking very much with a long-term mindset, the highs and lows of an individual cycle probably don't matter all that much,” he said.
“When you're talking about a 30-year mortgage, it doesn't necessarily make a huge difference.
“Particularly for such a high-value purchase like a home, finding the right property is probably more important than finding the property at exactly the right point in the cycle.”
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For buyers planning to own a home for many years, that may be worth considering.
The perfect entry point is often only obvious in hindsight.
Fraser added many buyers focus heavily on whether rates might fall, but often overlook how changing lending conditions can affect what they are able to borrow.
“Continued rises in interest rates do a lot of things, but one of them is that it slashes the borrowing capacity of people,” she said.
What buyers can control is whether the property suits their needs, whether repayments are affordable and whether they have sufficient financial buffers in place.
Why affordability is about more than house prices
When buyers think about affordability, property prices often dominate the conversation.
But prices are only one part of the equation.
Interest rates, household income, living costs and borrowing capacity can all influence what a buyer can realistically afford.
House prices often dominate affordability conversations, but borrowing power can be just as important.
“Everybody focuses on the repayment aspect of the mortgage when rates rise, but rate rises also reduce your borrowing capacity,” he said.
“Property values can effectively move out of reach because of rate rises from that point of view as well.”
This is where some buyers can find themselves caught in a difficult position.
Even if property prices soften, borrowing power may also fall if lending conditions remain tight.
In practical terms, a cheaper property does not automatically mean a buyer will be better off.
An Aussie Broker conversation can help borrowers model different scenarios and understand how changes in rates may affect both borrowing power and repayments.
Experts say don’t rush
While some experts warn against trying to time the market, others believe buyers now have more time to make decisions than they did during the boom years.
Professor Chris Leishman, Professor of Property and Housing Economics at Adelaide University, said today's market looks very different to the conditions buyers experienced just a few years ago.
“Gone are the days when there were 50 people at auctions and everyone was obsessed with fear of missing out, like we saw during the early post-pandemic recovery period,” he said.
“The market is much more stable and much more sensible now. There's no need to rush in.”
Leishman also believes buyers should be cautious about assuming they need to act immediately.
“Prices tend to stabilise and then remain flat for a reasonably long time.”
Leishman's comments highlight an important distinction: waiting is not always the wrong decision.
For some Australians, taking additional time to strengthen savings, reduce debt or improve their borrowing position may leave them better prepared when they do enter the market.
The key question is whether waiting is part of a deliberate plan, or simply the result of uncertainty.
Why some buyers are still moving ahead
Despite softer conditions, many Australians are continuing to buy.
Fraser said many buyers become focused on trying to predict exactly what the market will do next. But she believes that can sometimes distract from the bigger picture.
“Nobody can time the market,” she said. “Maybe prices will drop a little more, but you are not selling the house tomorrow. You are planning on living here for five years, 10 years, 20 years.”
For buyers, that does not mean acting immediately.
It means recognising that waiting for certainty may not always deliver the outcome they expect.
What buyers can control right now
No expert can tell buyers exactly what the market will do next. What buyers can control is their own financial position.
Some practical questions worth considering include:
How much could I comfortably borrow today?
Would I still be comfortable if rates rose again?
Have I built an adequate financial buffer?
Am I buying a property that suits my needs over the next five to 10 years?
Would waiting improve my position, or simply delay a decision?
For many Australians, answering those questions may provide more clarity than trying to predict where prices or rates will be six months from now.
An Aussie Broker can help compare loan options, assess borrowing capacity and model different scenarios so borrowers can better understand their options.
The bottom line
There is no universally perfect time to buy a home.
Waiting may provide time to save a larger deposit, improve affordability or gain confidence in their next step. And delaying could mean facing higher rents, changing borrowing conditions or a property market that looks different than expected.
“People wait to see consumer confidence. But once there is consumer confidence, they put themselves behind the eight ball,” Fraser said.
Whether you are ready to buy now or planning for next year, understanding your borrowing position may be more valuable than trying to predict the market's next move.
An Aussie Broker can help compare options, model different scenarios and understand how changes in rates, prices and lending conditions may affect your plans.
The goal is not necessarily to time the market perfectly. It is to make a decision that works for your budget, goals and circumstances.
