Key takeaways
Three of the four major banks now expect at least one more rate rise in 2026, with NAB forecasting a hike at the 29 September RBA meeting and CBA and ANZ pointing to November.
The national capital city median house price fell 1.8% over the August quarter to $1,226,833, marking a fourth consecutive quarterly decline. Sydney is down 7.5% and Melbourne 8.0% year to date.
The spring auction season opened with a national clearance rate of 46.1%, with around 31% fewer homes going to auction than the same weekend last year.
National rental vacancy held at 1.3% in July, with five capital cities recording vacancy rates below 1% as rental supply remains tight heading into spring.
Spring has started with a very different interest rate outlook to the one borrowers and buyers were facing just a month ago.
Three of the four major banks have revised their rate forecasts after previously expecting the cash rate to have peaked. At the same time, the spring auction season has opened with fewer homes than last year and lower clearance rates, while capital city house prices have continued to fall.
Here’s what changed in the week ending 6 September 2026, and what it may mean if you’re buying, refinancing, investing or reviewing your current home loan.
1. Three major banks now expect another rate rise
One of the biggest developments this week was a shift in the major banks’ rate forecasts following the latest inflation data.
The ABS released July CPI on 26 August, showing headline inflation eased to 3.5% annually, down from 3.8% in June.
However, trimmed mean inflation, an important measure of underlying inflation watched by the RBA, remained at 3.6%, unchanged from June and above the 3.5% economists had forecast.
NAB is forecasting a 0.25% increase at the 29 September RBA meeting, taking the cash rate to 4.60%. CBA and ANZ are forecasting the same 0.25% increase in November, while Westpac expects rates to remain on hold through 2026.
The July headline result was also affected by large energy price increases from a year earlier dropping out of the annual calculation, making the underlying inflation picture more persistent than the headline figure suggests.
What this means for you:
The 29 September RBA meeting is now a key date for borrowers.
Canstar's modelling estimates that a 0.25% rate increase would add around $91 a month to repayments on a $600,000 loan with 25 years remaining. Canstar’s modelling also puts the cumulative increase across five 2026 hikes at around $456 a month on the same loan.
That’s one reason to review your home loan before the next RBA decision. An Aussie Broker can compare your current rate with available options and help you understand how a rate change may affect your repayments.
You might also be interested in: What experts predict for the RBA's September 2026 interest rate decision
2. Home prices fall for a fourth consecutive quarter
The national capital city median house price fell 1.8% over the August quarter to $1,226,833, according to MyHousingMarket data.
Annual house price growth has slowed from a March 2026 peak of 10.9% to 0.5%.
Most capital cities recorded monthly falls. Sydney and Melbourne were each down 2.1%, Canberra and Adelaide fell 2.3%, and Perth declined 1.0%. Darwin was the only capital to record monthly growth, up 0.6%.
Year to date, Sydney is down 7.5% and Melbourne 8.0%. Perth, despite its monthly decline, remains 16.1% higher than a year ago.
Units have held up better than houses nationally. The national unit median fell 1.1% over the quarter to $706,226 but remains 2.2% higher over the year.
Dr Andrew Wilson of MyHousingMarket attributed the continued falls to the cumulative impact of three rate hikes, government tax changes and broader uncertainty around the economic outlook.
What this means for you:
Price falls in Sydney and Melbourne have changed conditions compared with the start of 2026.
Longer selling times and increased vendor discounting across many markets may give buyers more room to research, compare and negotiate.
Units have also performed more strongly than houses at a national level, which may be relevant for buyers looking at lower-priced entry points.
The picture still varies significantly between suburbs and property types, so national figures are only part of the story.
You might also be interested in: Is now a good time to buy a house in Australia?
3. Spring auction season opens with mixed results
The first weekend of spring produced mixed results across the capital cities, with Melbourne recording the strongest clearance rate and Brisbane the weakest among the major capitals.
Melbourne recorded a preliminary clearance rate of 63.4% from 654 listed auctions. The Outer East led Melbourne regions at 72.7%, followed by the Inner South at 68.2%.
Sydney recorded a preliminary clearance rate of 62.6% from 709 listed auctions. Units outperformed houses, with clearance rates of 69.6% and 59.7% respectively. The lowest-priced reported sale was a two-bedroom unit in Ryde at $521,000.
Brisbane recorded a 19.4% clearance rate from 128 listed auctions, while Adelaide recorded 46.2% and Canberra 38.8%.
The national average was 46.1%, compared with 74.4% in the same week last year. Cotality data reported by Bloomberg showed around 1,500 homes were taken to auction nationally, around 31% fewer than the same weekend in 2025.
What this means for you:
Lower auction volumes and clearance rates may give some buyers more room to negotiate, particularly where a property passes in and remains available after auction.
The reported $521,000 Ryde unit sale is within the applicable First Home Guarantee property price cap. Eligible first home buyers may be able to purchase with a 5% deposit without paying lenders mortgage insurance, subject to the scheme’s eligibility requirements.
If you’re planning to bid at auction, having finance pre-approval in place can help you understand your budget before bidding.
You might also be interested in: Why more sellers may be choosing private treaty over auction
4. Investor lending records its sharpest quarterly fall since September 2022
The number of new investor loan commitments fell 8.6% in the June quarter, the largest quarterly decline since September 2022. The value of investor loan commitments fell 10.2%, according to ABS Lending Indicators.
The slowdown follows three rate rises earlier in the year alongside Federal Budget changes affecting negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount for purchases of existing investment properties.
Housing supply also remains an important part of the broader property picture.
Australia approved 205,249 dwellings in 2025–26. While approvals are not the same as completed homes, the figure remains below the 240,000 annual completions implied by the National Housing Accord target of 1.2 million new homes over five years to June 2029.
What this means for you:
Lower investor lending and tight rental vacancy rates are creating a different set of conditions for investors to assess.
Reduced purchasing activity may mean less competition in some areas, while limited rental supply may support tenant demand. That does not, on its own, make a property a suitable investment.
An Aussie Broker can help you understand your borrowing position, lending options and potential repayments when you’re assessing an investment property.
You might also be interested in: Investing in property in Australia: A complete guide
5. Rental vacancies remain tight as rents ease across most capitals
Australia’s national residential vacancy rate held at 1.3% in July, unchanged from June, according to SQM Research.
Five capital cities recorded vacancy rates below 1%: Brisbane at 0.9%, Perth and Adelaide at 0.6%, and Hobart and Darwin at 0.3%.
Sydney and Melbourne recorded the highest capital city vacancy rates at 1.7%, although both remain below the 2–3% range generally considered a more balanced rental market.
Despite tight vacancy rates, rents eased across most capitals during August.
According to MyHousingMarket data published on 4 September, Sydney house rents fell 0.3%, Melbourne 0.8%, Brisbane and Adelaide 1.1%, and Canberra 2.7%. Hobart was the exception, with house rents rising 2.4%.
SQM Research puts the national average advertised rent at $698.45 a week.
What this means for you:
Low vacancy rates, particularly in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, show that rental supply remains tight in several capital cities.
If you’re renting while building a deposit, comparing your current rent with the potential cost of owning a similar property can help you understand what buying may look like.
That means looking at more than repayments, including your deposit, upfront costs, ongoing expenses and any government schemes you may be eligible for.
An Aussie Broker can help you work through those numbers based on your circumstances.
You might also be interested in: Why are rents rising while house prices fall in Australia?
6. Perth listings exceed 7,000 for the first time in more than three years
REIWA confirmed this week that Perth active listings had exceeded 7,000 for the first time in more than three years.
The week ending 23 August recorded 7,204 properties for sale, up 129.1% compared with a year earlier.
REIWA president Suzanne Brown cautioned against interpreting the increase as a rush of distressed sellers. After a prolonged period of unusually low supply in late 2025 and early 2026, she said new listings had largely returned to longer-term average levels.
Sales activity remained active alongside the increase in supply, with 630 transactions recorded for the week, up 6.1% from the previous week.
Rental listings remained relatively limited, with 2,083 properties for rent during the same week, down 6.8% year on year.
Perth’s annual house price growth remains the strongest of any capital at 16.1%, although prices declined 1.0% in August.
What this means for you:
Perth buyers now have more properties to compare than they did a year ago.
More available stock can give buyers additional time to research recent sales, assess the area, complete due diligence and consider their negotiating position.
How much room there is to negotiate will still depend on the individual property and level of buyer competition.
You might also be interested in: Perth is now a $1 million city. What does that mean for buyers?
7. Consumer sentiment improves but remains below year-ago levels
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index rose 6% to 88.9 in August, marking its second consecutive monthly improvement.
The lift was driven largely by mortgage holders. Responses collected after the RBA’s 11 August decision to hold rates averaged 91.1, compared with 83.6 before the decision. Sentiment among renters eased slightly over the month.
At 88.9, the overall index remains 9.7% below its level a year earlier and below 100, meaning pessimists still outnumber optimists.
The “time to buy a dwelling” sub-index rose 12.1% to 95.7, its highest level since November 2025, although still below the long-run average of 119.
Despite the improvement in sentiment, 59% of respondents expected mortgage rates to rise further over the next year.
What this means for you:
Mortgage holder confidence improved after the RBA held rates in August, but the rate outlook has shifted again with three major banks now forecasting another increase before the end of 2026.
The “time to buy a dwelling” reading has also improved as buyers in some markets see more listings, lower auction clearance rates and softer prices.
Those indicators provide useful context, but your own budget, borrowing capacity and longer-term plans matter more when deciding whether the time is right for you.
You might also be interested in: What is mortgage stress and how can you manage it?
Property spotlight
Each week, we feature a suburb and a selection of properties identified by the Aussie Homes Property Analyst team to showcase what's currently available in the market.
This week's spotlight: Aberglasslyn, NSW 2320
Aberglasslyn is a modern residential suburb in the Maitland local government area of the Hunter Valley, around 160 kilometres north of Sydney.
The suburb has grown substantially over the past decade, with its population increasing by approximately 129% over 10 years.
Current property data points to relatively limited available stock. Stock on market sits at 0.04%, inventory at 0.08 months and the typical time on market is 28 days.
One-year capital growth was 9.67%, while the 10-year figure was 118.33%. The typical suburb price is $881,700.
This week, the Aussie Homes Property Analyst team identified three modern family homes in Aberglasslyn. Based on the team’s property-specific checks, none of the risks assessed were identified. Estimated gross rental yields range from 4.1% to 4.2%, compared with a suburb gross yield of 3.54%.
Property | Analysed price | Expected rent | Gross yield | Snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
7 Dunnart Street, Aberglasslyn NSW | $870,000 | $700/week | 4.2% | 4 bed • 2 bath • 2 car |
7 Olearia Way, Aberglasslyn NSW | $865,000 | $700/week | 4.2% | 4 bed • 2 bath • 2 car |
14 Oystercatcher Street, Aberglasslyn NSW | $760,000 | $600/week | 4.1% | 3 bed • 2 bath • 2 car |
The Dunnart Street property sits on a 620m² block and was built in 2012. Its four-bedroom layout may appeal to a broad range of tenants, while its estimated gross yield is above the current suburb average.
Olearia Way sits on a 480m² block and was built in 2010, offering a similar four-bedroom profile at a comparable price point.
At $760,000, Oystercatcher Street is the lowest-priced of the three. It sits approximately $121,700, or 13.8%, below Aberglasslyn’s typical price of $881,700.
For investors considering the suburb, it offers a lower entry price than the other two properties, with an estimated gross yield above the suburb average.
The property-specific checks supplied by the Aussie Homes Property Analyst team did not identify any of the hazard risks assessed across the three properties. Buyers should still complete their own building, pest, planning, insurance, legal and other due diligence before making a property decision.
Interested in exploring investment properties like these? Browse the latest analysed properties on Aussie Property, or chat with an Aussie Broker or Buyer’s Agent about options that may suit your goals and circumstances.
What to watch in the coming weeks
Several upcoming releases and events may influence the interest rate outlook and property market conditions:
Weekly capital city auction results as the spring selling season builds momentum into October
RBA appearances on 8 September at 1:20pm and 7:30pm AEST, the first public communications since the August hold
ABS Labour Force data for August, due 17 September and expected to be an important input into the 29 September RBA decision
RBA Monetary Policy Board meeting on 28 and 29 September, with the cash rate decision due at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday 29 September
ABS Monthly CPI for August, due 30 September, providing the next significant update on inflation after the RBA meeting
Together, these updates may provide more clarity on the labour market, consumer conditions and inflation, all important factors for the interest rate and property outlook through the rest of 2026.
What could this mean for your next move?
Spring has started with more uncertainty around interest rates than we saw a month ago.
For buyers, conditions have shifted in some capital cities. More listings, lower auction clearance rates and softer prices may give you more room to compare properties and negotiate, although the picture varies between suburbs and property types.
For existing borrowers, 29 September is the next key RBA decision date. Whatever happens to the cash rate, reviewing your current home loan can help you understand whether your rate and loan features are still competitive.
Whether you’re looking to buy, refinance or simply check your existing loan, an Aussie Broker can help you understand your options based on your goals and circumstances.
