Key takeaways
• 97% of economists expect the RBA to leave rates unchanged at 4.35% on 16 June
• National auction clearance rates fell to 49.8%, creating more negotiating opportunities for buyers
• Darwin house rents rose 9.7% in a month, highlighting ongoing rental supply pressures
• Mortgage holders remain the least confident group in the economy following three rate hikes in 2026
• Most economists continue to favour variable or split loan structures for new borrowers
The property market does not move on one headline. It shifts with a mix of interest rates, lender pricing, supply, demand, and policy settings.
Each week, we look at what is changing across the market and break it down in a way that is easier to understand.
Here is what moved the property market between June 11 and 15, and what it could mean for you if you are buying, refinancing, upgrading or reviewing your home loan.
1. The June RBA decision is now hours away
Attention is firmly on the Reserve Bank's next cash rate decision on 16 June, with 97% of economists surveyed expecting rates to remain unchanged at 4.35%. However, more than half of respondents still expect at least one additional rate increase before the end of 2026.
What this means for you:
While a June hold is now widely expected, uncertainty remains beyond that point. Borrowers may still benefit from understanding how their repayments would be affected if rates remain elevated for longer than expected.
You might also be interested in: RBA interest rate outlook – What Australians should watch next
2. National auction clearance rates have slipped below 50%
Auction market conditions remained soft this week, with the national clearance rate falling to 49.8%, down from 50.5% the previous week and well below levels recorded a year ago.
Sydney recorded a clearance rate of 62.0%, while national results continue to reflect weaker buyer demand following three consecutive rate increases in 2026.
What this means for you:
Lower clearance rates can create more negotiating opportunities for buyers. In some markets, passed-in properties and longer selling campaigns may provide additional room to negotiate on price or terms.
You might also be interested in: Why some buyers may have more room to negotiate in today’s property market
3. Rental pressures remain strongest in some parts of the country
New rental market data released this week showed Darwin recorded the strongest rental growth among Australia's capital cities.
House rents rose 9.7% over the month and 17.6% annually, while unit rents increased 21.5% over the year. Sydney remained the most expensive rental market, with median house rents reaching $850 per week.
Analysts noted that vacancy rates remain at or below 1% across most capital cities, highlighting ongoing rental supply constraints.
What this means for you:
Rental conditions continue to vary across the country, but supply remains tight in many markets. For some renters, rising rental costs may prompt a closer look at whether buying has become more achievable, particularly where government support schemes may be available.
You might also be interested in: 2026 Federal Budget – What borrowers need to know
4. Mortgage holders remain the least confident group in the economy
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose modestly during the week, but mortgage holders continued to report lower confidence than renters and outright homeowners.
The data suggests the impact of three rate hikes in 2026 continues to weigh on household confidence among borrowers.
What this means for you:
If you're feeling pressure from higher repayments, you're not alone. Many borrowers are reassessing their budgets, reviewing their loan structure, or exploring whether more competitive rates may be available.
You might also be interested in: Why June is a smart time to review your home loan
5. Major banks are now forecasting rate cuts, but not until 2027
Recent reporting shows ANZ has become the final major bank to forecast future rate cuts, joining CBA and NAB in expecting rates to eventually move lower.
However, ANZ does not expect cuts to begin until 2027, while Westpac continues to forecast additional rate rises before any eventual reductions.
The report highlights that while the direction of travel may eventually be lower, borrowers could still be facing elevated rates for some time.
What this means for you:
Future rate cuts may still be some time away. For borrowers, that means understanding your current rate and repayment structure may be more important than waiting for future policy changes. Reviewing your options now can help you understand what may be available in today's market.
You might also be interested in: Banks are already changing investor lending. Here’s what it means for your borrowing power
6. First home buyers are weighing fixed, variable and split loan options
Finder's latest economist survey found 61% of respondents would recommend a variable rate for new owner-occupiers entering the market, while 36% favoured a split loan structure.
What this means for you:
Different loan structures may suit different circumstances. Buyers entering the market may want to understand how fixed, variable, and split options could affect repayments both now and in the future.
You might also be interested in: EOFY checklist for first home buyers – 5 things to do before 30 June
What to watch in the coming weeks
Several upcoming events could influence market conditions over the next few weeks:
RBA cash rate decision on 16 June
RBA Governor Michele Bullock's post-decision press conference
SQM Research rental vacancy data
ABS monthly CPI indicator for May
Senate Economics Legislation Committee report on the negative gearing and CGT reforms
These updates may influence borrowing conditions, buyer sentiment, and market activity heading into the second half of the year.
How this could impact your next step
Property markets can move quickly, but not every update will affect everyone in the same way.
What matters most is understanding how the current environment applies to your own plans, whether you are buying, refinancing or reviewing your current loan.
If you want help understanding your options, an Aussie Broker can walk you through what may be available based on your circumstances.
