Key takeaways
Economists expect the RBA to raise the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September, according to a survey by Bloomberg.
Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August, while employment increased by around 39,000 people.
Mortgage demand fell 14.1% year-on-year in August, with first home buyer applications down 20%.
Preliminary auction clearance rates fell to a 10-week low of 50.3% as the RBA decision approaches.
Household demand for credit reached a record $72.6 billion, while land and dwelling values fell 0.2%.
The property market continues to shift as buyers, borrowers and homeowners prepare for another important RBA decision.
This week brought fresh data on employment, mortgage demand and household borrowing, while auction conditions softened ahead of the Reserve Bank’s September meeting.
Here’s what changed across the property market in the week leading up to 28 September 2026, and what it could mean if you’re buying, refinancing, investing, or reviewing your home loan.
1. Economists expect the RBA to raise rates on Tuesday
All 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the RBA to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on 29 September, according to ABC News. Financial markets were also pricing around a 90% probability of an increase ahead of the meeting.
All four major banks now expect a September increase. CBA, Westpac and NAB currently expect this to be the final rise of 2026, while ANZ also forecasts another increase in November.
What this means for you:
A rate rise remains a forecast until the RBA announces its decision. If you have a variable home loan, understanding how a higher rate could affect your repayments can help you prepare for either outcome.
If you’re planning to buy, it may also be worth checking whether your borrowing capacity has changed.
You might also be interested in: What experts predict for the RBA’s September 2026 interest rate decision
2. Unemployment rises to 4.6%
Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August, from 4.5% in July, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Employment increased by around 39,000 people, while the participation rate rose to 67.1%.
The composition of employment also shifted, with part-time employment increasing by around 46,000 people while full-time employment fell by around 6,000.
The ABS recommends some caution when interpreting short-term movements in the August data following changes to its survey methodology.
What this means for you:
Employment and income can influence both household budgets and how lenders assess borrowing capacity.
If your employment circumstances have changed, understanding how that affects your finances may be useful before applying for a home loan or making a property offer.
You might also be interested in: Paying more because you’re self-employed? You might have more options than you think
3. Mortgage demand falls for a fifth consecutive month
Australian mortgage applications fell 14.1% year-on-year in August, marking a fifth consecutive month of declining demand, according to Equifax data reported by Australian Broker.
First home buyer applications recorded a larger decline of 20% year-on-year, while applications among 18 to 25-year-olds fell 21.7%. NSW recorded the largest decline among the mainland states reported, at 15.9%.
What this means for you:
Lower mortgage application volumes can indicate fewer people are actively seeking finance, but that doesn’t necessarily mean every property market has become less competitive.
If you’re planning to buy, knowing your current borrowing capacity can help you understand what price range is realistic before you start making offers.
You might also be interested in: Rate rise ahead? How to stress-test your household budget
4. Preliminary auction clearance rates fall to a 10-week low
The preliminary combined capital city auction clearance rate fell to 50.3% over the weekend, down from the previous week’s preliminary result of 54.0%. That earlier result was subsequently revised to a final clearance rate of 49.1%.
There were 1,428 auctions held across the combined capitals, down 22.4% from the previous week. Melbourne’s preliminary clearance rate fell to 48.8%, while Sydney recorded 53.6%.
What this means for you:
Softer clearance rates can create more opportunities to negotiate when properties pass in, although conditions vary by suburb and property type.
If you’re buying at auction, researching comparable sales and having your finances organised can help you understand your limits before bidding.
You might also be interested in: How do property auctions work? A buyer’s guide
5. Household credit demand reaches a record high
Household demand for credit reached a record of $72.6 billion in the June quarter, driven by growth in housing loan balances and borrowing by private unincorporated businesses, according to the ABS.
At the same time, the value of land and dwellings fell 0.2% over the quarter, the first quarterly decline since September 2022. Total household wealth still increased 1.0%, supported by growth in superannuation and other financial assets.
What this means for you:
If you’re planning to use the equity in your property to refinance, renovate or purchase another home, softer property values can affect the amount of usable equity available.
An up-to-date property valuation can help give you a clearer picture before making plans based on your home’s value.
You might also be interested in: Refinancing myths that could be costing you
6. Buyers are adjusting their budgets to pursue home ownership
Three-quarters of Australian prospective buyers surveyed by Cotality said they would be willing to cut discretionary spending to help purchase a home, according to its 2026 Consumer Sentiment Report.
The research also found 63% would consider taking a smaller mortgage, 57% would consider a smaller home, and 58% would pursue refinancing or other ways to reduce their debt.
What this means for you:
Buying a home can involve trade-offs, but those decisions will look different for every household.
Rather than relying on a particular future interest rate or market outcome, understanding what you can comfortably afford today can help you work out which compromises, if any, make sense for your plans.
You might also be interested in: Choosing home loans that leave more room for living
Property spotlight
Each week, we feature a suburb and a selection of properties identified by the Aussie Homes Property Analyst team to showcase what’s currently available in the market.
This week’s spotlight: Dubbo, New South Wales
This week, we’re featuring a modern property in Dubbo, selected for its analysed rental yield, relatively recent construction and local housing supply conditions.
Dubbo continues to attract interest from buyers and investors, with the local market offering a mix of family homes and access to schools, shopping, transport and employment hubs.
Property | Analysed price | Expected rent | Gross yield | Snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
$740,000 | $650/week | 4.6% | 4 bed • 2 bath • 2 car |
The 2018-built property sits on approximately 617m² and is within 5km of Charles Sturt University, schools, the city centre and shopping facilities.
Based on the Property Analyst team’s assessment, the estimated rent of $650 per week is above the supplied Dubbo suburb median of $542, while the estimated gross yield of 4.6% is above the supplied suburb-level figure of approximately 3.52%.
Property-specific checks supplied by the team identified no hazard overlay. Purchasers should still complete their own building, pest, planning, insurance, and other due diligence before making a property decision.
Looking for an investment property? Explore 63 Spears Drive on Aussie Property, or chat with an Aussie Broker or Buyer’s Agent to explore options that suit your goals and circumstances.
What to watch in the coming weeks
Several upcoming events could influence borrowing and property market conditions:
29 September: RBA cash rate decision
29 September: ABS Household Spending Indicator for August
30 September: ABS Monthly CPI Indicator for August
30 September: ABS Building Approvals for August
Early October: Cotality September Home Value Index
6 October: Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment
The RBA decision will be the immediate focus for borrowers, while the following day’s inflation data will provide further insight into the outlook for the November meeting.
What could this mean for your next move?
Buyers and borrowers are heading into another important week, with the RBA decision approaching as mortgage demand slows, and auction conditions remain softer than earlier in the year.
At the same time, the latest employment and household finance data show why it’s important to look beyond any single property market headline.
Your income, borrowing capacity, existing debt and local property conditions can all influence what the current environment means for you.
Whether you’re buying, refinancing or reviewing your current loan, an Aussie Broker can help you understand your options based on your goals and circumstances.
