Key takeaways
• A June RBA pause is now the consensus view, with money markets pricing only a 15% chance of another hike
• New builds are emerging as the key focus for investors following the Federal Budget changes
• Sydney auction clearance rates bounced to 64.2%, while national conditions remain softer than last year
• Unemployment rose to 4.5%, shifting expectations around where rates may go next
• Rent growth forecasts and tight supply continue to shape buyer and investor decisions
The property market does not move on one headline. It shifts with a mix of interest rates, lender pricing, supply, demand, and policy settings.
Each week, we look at what is changing across the market and break it down in a way that is easier to understand.
Here is what moved the property market between May 19 and 25, and what it could mean for you if you are buying, refinancing, upgrading or reviewing your home loan.
1. A June rate hold is now the market consensus
The RBA minutes confirmed the Board debated both a pause and a hike at the May meeting, while money markets moved to price only a 15% probability of another increase in June.
CBA, ANZ and NAB are now all forecasting a hold on 16 June, while Westpac remains the lone major bank forecasting further hikes later this year.
What this means for you:
Borrowers are now working with a very different outlook compared to earlier this month. While rates remain high, the market is increasingly expecting a pause rather than another immediate increase.
For some borrowers, this may be an opportunity to review their loan before lender competition eases again.
You might also be interested in: Rates are back near pre-cut levels – How Australians are adapting
2. The unemployment shock has changed the rate conversation
The ABS April Labour Force Survey showed unemployment rising to 4.5%, the highest level since November 2021, while employment fell by 18,600 jobs against expectations of a gain.
The result shifted market expectations sharply, with analysts viewing it as a sign that the current rate cycle may already be slowing the broader economy.
What this means for you:
Economic data like unemployment can directly influence future rate decisions. For borrowers, the latest figures may reduce the likelihood of another near-term rate increase, although repayments are still sitting well above where they were at the start of 2026.
You might also be interested in: Why some buyers have more room to negotiate in today’s property market
3. Refinancing competition remains strong while lenders fight for borrowers
Canstar analysis this week showed around 40 lenders still offer at least one variable home loan product below 6%, while standard variable rates among the major banks continue to sit above that level.
The gap between some advertised market rates and standard variable rates has widened significantly following the May hike cycle.
What this means for you:
If you have not reviewed your loan recently, there may still be opportunities to compare rates and loan features. Even relatively small differences in rates can affect repayments over time, particularly on larger loan balances.
You might also be interested in: Fixed rates in focus after RBA move, but fewer borrowers rush to lock in
4. New builds are now becoming a bigger focus for investors
Post-budget analysis this week continued to highlight how the recent Federal Budget changes are reshaping investor behaviour.
PropertyUpdate’s Brett Warren said the Budget has increased investor focus on new builds, although the announced tax changes are not yet law and are still subject to the legislation process.
Housing Australia also reported increased First Home Guarantee enquiries and pre-approvals following the Budget changes.
What this means for you:
Investors and first home buyers are both increasingly focusing on new builds and eligible properties. That could put more pressure on some growth corridors and newly developed areas over time.
You might also be interested in: How the Federal Budget is influencing property investment decisions
5. Sydney auction conditions improved, but the broader market remains softer than last year
The latest weekly auction data showed Sydney clearance rates rising to 64.2% as listing volumes increased, while the national clearance rate remained lower at 52.2%.
Despite the rebound in Sydney, national clearance rates remain well below the same period last year.
What this means for you:
Conditions may still favour buyers in many markets, particularly where listings are increasing, and sellers are adjusting expectations. Buyers with finance already in place may continue to benefit from lower competition compared to earlier in the year.
You might also be interested in: Priced out of Sydney? Here’s where the market is actually moving
6. Melbourne and Perth continue to move in very different directions
PropertyUpdate’s Melbourne forecast described current softness as a possible long-term buying window, while Perth continues to record extremely tight conditions, including a median time on market of just nine days.
Perth values are now up 26% annually, while Melbourne conditions remain softer and more negotiation-friendly.
What this means for you:
Property conditions continue to vary significantly depending on location and price range. Buyers and investors may experience very different conditions depending on the city or suburb they are targeting.
You might also be interested in: Banks are already changing investor lending. Here’s what it means for your borrowing power
7. Rent growth forecasts continue to shape housing decisions
New research from CBRE projected apartment rents could rise by 24% nationally between 2025 and 2030, while vacancy rates across capital cities may fall further over the same period.
The report also highlighted an ongoing shortfall between apartment demand and future supply.
What this means for you:
For renters and first home buyers, the gap between renting and owning is becoming a bigger consideration in some suburbs. In parts of outer-ring Sydney, current mortgage repayments are becoming closer to rental costs than they were in previous years.
You might also be interested in: Landlords and renters – What the 2026 Budget means for the rental market
8. Buyers are watching closely for the next inflation result
Attention is now turning to the April monthly CPI release ahead of the June RBA meeting.
Market commentary this week noted that a stronger-than-expected inflation result could increase the likelihood of another rate rise later this year, while a softer result would reinforce expectations that rates remain on hold.
What this means for you:
The next inflation reading may influence how lenders, economists, and markets view the second half of 2026. Borrowers considering refinancing or purchasing may continue to watch upcoming economic data closely.
You might also be interested in: Should you buy an investment property before 1 July 2027?
What to watch in the coming weeks
A few key developments may shape the market over the next few weeks:
April monthly CPI data (late May)
The next RBA meeting on 16 June
Cotality’s May Home Value Index on 1 June
Queensland’s First Home Owner Grant changes from 30 June
These updates may influence borrowing conditions, buyer sentiment, and property market activity heading into winter.
How this could impact your next step
Property markets can move quickly, but not every change will affect everyone in the same way.
What matters most is understanding how the current environment applies to your own plans, whether you are buying, refinancing or reviewing your current loan.
If you want help understanding your options, an Aussie Broker can walk you through what may be available based on your circumstances.
