Key takeaways
Mortgage stress has risen for a fifth consecutive month, with 1.606 million borrowers now considered at risk.
National home values recorded their largest quarterly decline since January 2023, while buyers continue to gain negotiating power in some markets.
Vendor discounting has increased, and homes are taking longer to sell, creating more opportunities for prepared buyers.
Auction clearance rates remain below 50% nationally ahead of this week's closely watched inflation data.
Economists are watching Wednesday's CPI release ahead of the RBA's August cash rate decision.
The property market continues to shift as buyers, borrowers, and investors respond to changing market conditions.
This week brought fresh data on mortgage stress, home values and buyer conditions, while attention turns to the June quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) ahead of the Reserve Bank's August cash rate decision.
Here's what changed across the property market in the week leading up to 27 July, and what it could mean if you're buying, refinancing, investing or reviewing your home loan.
1. Mortgage stress reaches a fifth consecutive monthly high
Mortgage stress continued to climb in June, with 1.606 million owner-occupier mortgage holders now considered at risk, representing 30.3% of borrowers.
The report marks the fifth consecutive monthly increase and highlights the continued pressure higher interest rates are placing on many households.
While the data reflects broader market conditions rather than individual circumstances, it comes as many borrowers continue to adjust to higher repayments following the Reserve Bank's three cash rate increases earlier this year.
What this means for you:
If your home loan repayments have increased over the past year, it may be worth reviewing your current loan to understand whether a more competitive option is available.
Speaking with an Aussie Broker can help you compare eligible home loan options based on your circumstances.
You might also be interested in: What is mortgage stress and how can you manage it?
2. Home values record their largest quarterly decline since early 2023
National home values fell 0.7% over the three months to June, marking the largest rolling quarterly decline since January 2023. Combined capital city values declined 1.3% over the quarter, while regional markets continued to record modest growth.
Sydney remains 3.7% below its January 2026 peak, while Melbourne sits around 4% below its March 2022 high.
Although conditions continue to vary across Australia, the latest figures suggest buyers in some markets are seeing more opportunities than earlier this year.
What this means for you:
If you're searching in markets where prices have softened, you may have more room to negotiate than during the stronger seller conditions of recent years.
Local market conditions can differ significantly, so it's worth researching recent comparable sales before making an offer.
You might also be interested in: When should I make an offer on a house?
3. Buyers gain more negotiating power as vendor discounting increases
Median vendor discounting across the combined capital cities has increased to 3.6%, while the median time properties spend on the market has risen to 32 days.
Longer selling times and increased discounting suggest some buyers are benefiting from greater negotiating opportunities compared with the highly competitive conditions seen over the past few years.
What this means for you:
If you've already secured pre-approval, the additional time properties are spending on the market may allow you to complete more thorough research before making an offer.
Being prepared with your finances can also help you act quickly if the right property becomes available.
You might also be interested in: Home loan pre-approval explained
4. Auction markets remain subdued ahead of key inflation data
National auction clearance rates remained below 50% for an eighth consecutive week, with the preliminary clearance rate sitting at 47.9%. Brisbane also recorded its ninth straight week below 40%, while Sydney's preliminary clearance rate improved modestly.
Although auction performance varies by location, softer clearance rates generally indicate a more balanced market than seen during the peak of recent seller conditions.
What this means for you:
Properties that don't sell at auction often proceed to private treaty negotiations, which may create additional opportunities for buyers. Understanding local auction trends can also help you better gauge market conditions before making an offer.
You might also be interested in: Why more sellers may be choosing private treaty over auction
5. All eyes turn to this week's inflation data ahead of the August RBA meeting
The June quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI), due for release on 29 July, is expected to play an important role in shaping expectations ahead of the Reserve Bank's next cash rate decision on 11 August.
While Westpac continues to forecast another rate increase, CBA, NAB and ANZ all expect the cash rate to remain unchanged at 4.35%.
The inflation figures will provide further insight into whether price pressures continue to ease and could influence expectations for monetary policy over the coming months.
What this means for you:
If you're planning to buy, refinance, or review your home loan, it's worth keeping an eye on this week's inflation data.
While no one can predict the Reserve Bank's decision with certainty, understanding how different scenarios could affect your repayments may help you plan ahead.
You might also be interested in: What experts predict for the RBA’s August 2026 interest rate decision
Property spotlight
Each week, we feature a suburb and a selection of properties identified by the Aussie Homes Property Analyst team to showcase what's currently available in the market.
This week's spotlight: Mernda, Victoria
This week, we're featuring a property in Mernda, one of Melbourne's northern growth corridors, selected for its affordability relative to the suburb's typical house price, long-term capital growth and established rental demand.
With strong population growth, family-friendly amenities and convenient access to schools, shopping centres and public transport, Mernda continues to attract interest from both owner-occupiers and investors.
Property | Indicative price | Expected rent | Gross yield | Snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
$700,000 | $580/week | 4.3% | 3 bed • 2 bath • 2 car |
Looking for an investment property? Browse the latest analysed properties on Aussie Property or chat with an Aussie Broker or Buyer's Agent to explore options that suit your goals and circumstances.
What to watch
29 July: June quarter CPI release, a key factor in expectations ahead of the RBA's August cash rate decision.
11 August: Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision.
What could this mean for your next move?
Market conditions continue to shift as economic data, lending competition and buyer activity evolve.
While some buyers may be finding more opportunities to negotiate, many borrowers are continuing to manage higher repayment costs and uncertainty ahead of the Reserve Bank's next decision.
Whether you're buying your first home, refinancing or reviewing your current loan, understanding how these market changes relate to your own circumstances can help you make more informed decisions.
An Aussie Broker can help you explore your options and understand what's available based on your goals and circumstances.
