Will interest rates go up in November? What the odds and history say

Key takeaways

• The RBA cash rate is 4.60% after four rises in 2026, with the next decision due at 2.30pm AEDT on Tuesday 3 November. 

• Market pricing put the odds of a November rate rise at 51% on 21 October, up from below 20% the week before. 

• Melbourne Cup Day isn't always hike day: across 20 November meetings, the RBA held 11 times, raised six and cut three. 

• Whether interest rates go up in November or hold, checking your home loan rate now could help you prepare. 

Wondering whether interest rates will go up in November? If you've got a home loan, you might be keeping a close eye on the RBA after four rate rises this year. 

It's shaping up to be a close call. The RBA will announce its decision at 2.30pm AEDT on Tuesday 3 November 2026, which is also Melbourne Cup Day, and the latest inflation figures are expected to play an important role. 

Here's what the odds suggest, what past November decisions tell us and what you can do to prepare, whether rates rise or stay on hold. 

Will interest rates go up in November 2026? 

It's a close call. Market pricing suggests a rise and a hold are roughly equally likely, and economists at the big four banks are split.

The September quarter inflation figures, due on 28 October, could be the deciding factor before the RBA announces its decision on 3 November. 

Why could the RBA raise rates again? 

The RBA's cash rate currently sits at 4.60%, following four increases of 0.25 percentage points each in 2026.

That's a total increase of one percentage point since the beginning of the year.  

Here's how the cash rate has changed so far this year: 

Source: RBA cash rate target history 

It largely comes down to inflation. 

The RBA aims to keep inflation within its target range of 2% to 3% over time. When prices rise too quickly, increasing the cash rate is one way the RBA can try to slow spending and borrowing, helping to ease inflationary pressure. 

In its September 2026 monetary policy statement, the RBA said inflation remained elevated, with some of the risks identified in its earlier forecasts starting to materialise. 

Concerns grew further when RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser described the inflation outlook as "materially worse" than the RBA had forecast in August. 

However, another increase isn't guaranteed. The RBA will also consider how previous rate rises are affecting households, employment and the broader economy before making its November decision. 

You might also be interested in: Which banks have passed on the RBA's latest rate rise? 

What are the chances of another RBA rate rise? 

Market pricing moved from below a 20% chance of an increase the previous week to 51% on 21 October 2026, following comments from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser about the worsening inflation outlook.  

But what does a 50% chance of a rate rise actually mean? Put simply, it suggests that financial markets see a rate rise and a hold as roughly equally likely outcomes. 

These expectations can be measured using financial market products such as ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures. The prices of these contracts help indicate where traders expect interest rates to go. 

Market expectations can change as new inflation figures, employment data or RBA comments become available. Different websites may also report different probabilities depending on the data and forecasting methods they use. 

The important thing to remember is that market odds aren't a prediction from the RBA itself. They reflect what financial markets are expecting at a particular point in time. 

Economists at the big four banks are also split, with two expecting a rise and two a hold. See what experts predict for November. 

Market pricing and economists' forecasts reflect expectations as of the dates stated and may change. They do not guarantee the RBA's decision.  

Why are the latest inflation figures so important? 

Before the RBA makes its November decision, we'll get another important update on inflation. 

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is scheduled to release the September quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures at 11.30am AEDT on Wednesday 28 October 2026. One figure economists will be watching closely is trimmed mean inflation. 

While the headline CPI measures changes in the prices of goods and services, trimmed mean inflation removes unusually large price movements to give a clearer picture of underlying inflation pressures.  

If the figures show inflation is running higher than the RBA expected, it could strengthen the case for another rate rise. 

On the other hand, if inflation comes in lower than expected, the RBA may have more reason to keep rates unchanged while assessing the impact of previous increases. 

Either way, the inflation figures won't be the only factor in the decision. The RBA will also consider employment, household spending, and the broader economic outlook. 

You might also be interested in: How a rate rise could change what home buyers can afford 

Does the RBA usually raise rates on Melbourne Cup Day? 

If November interest rate decisions sound familiar, there's a reason for that. 

Over the years, several RBA rate changes have coincided with Melbourne Cup Day, leading to plenty of discussions about whether the first Tuesday in November is more likely to bring an interest rate increase. 

But does the history actually support that idea? Not necessarily. Although the RBA has raised rates on Melbourne Cup Day before, it has also cut rates and left them unchanged during November meetings. 

The RBA makes its decisions based on economic conditions, rather than what's happening on the racing calendar.

The RBA's November decision is scheduled for 2.30pm AEDT, around half an hour before the Melbourne Cup starts. 

Looking back at November decisions between 2006 and 2025 gives us a clearer picture. 

Source: RBA cash rate target history 

Across those 20 November meetings, the RBA raised rates six times, cut them three times, and left them unchanged 11 times. 

So, while rate rises have happened in November, a hold has been the most common outcome over this period. 

Of course, that doesn't mean the RBA is more likely to hold rates this November.

What matters more is the broader interest rate cycle and the economic conditions influencing the Board's decision. 

How does this rate cycle compare with 2022 to 2023? 

You might remember the series of interest rate increases between May 2022 and November 2023. 

During that period, the RBA raised the cash rate 13 times, taking it from 0.10% to 4.35% in around 18 months. So far in 2026, we've seen four increases, taking the cash rate to 4.60%. 

If the RBA increases rates again in November, the cash rate would reach 4.85%, its highest level since late 2008. However, it's important to remember that no two interest rate cycles are exactly the same. 

Inflation, employment, household spending, and global economic conditions all influence how the RBA responds. 

While history can help us understand how interest rates have moved in the past, it can't tell us exactly what will happen next. 

You might also be interested in: Could your household budget handle higher costs? 

What could a November rate rise cost you? 

For homeowners with a variable-rate mortgage, another RBA increase could mean higher repayments if their lender passes on the change.  

Even a 0.25 percentage point increase could put additional pressure on household budgets, particularly when combined with previous rate rises. 

But how much could your repayments actually increase? Let's say you have a $600,000 home loan with a 30-year term, and you're making principal and interest repayments. 

Here's how your approximate monthly repayments could look at different interest rates. 

In this example, an increase from 6.25% to 6.50% would add approximately $98 to your monthly repayments. That's around $1,176 extra over a year if repayments stayed at the higher amount. 

Your actual repayment change may be different. It will depend on your outstanding loan balance, remaining loan term, current interest rate and whether your lender passes on some or all of the RBA's increase. 

If you're wondering how another rate rise could affect your own budget, you can use our Interest Rate Change Calculator to explore different scenarios. 

What can you do before 3 November? 

With the November decision approaching, you might be wondering whether there's anything you should be doing with your home loan. 

You don't necessarily have to wait for the RBA's announcement to start reviewing your options. 

Whether you're paying off an existing mortgage, approaching the end of a fixed-rate period or preparing to buy, understanding where you stand could help you plan for what comes next. 

If you're on a variable-rate home loan 

If your lender has already passed on this year's rate increases, you may have noticed your repayments creeping up. 

Alexis Magri, Retail Broker at Aussie Ryde, says many of his customers are looking more closely at their home loan options as interest rates change. 

"The main question I hear from homeowners is whether they're still on a competitive interest rate. When rates move, it creates a sense of urgency to see how they could save on interest, minimise repayments or restructure their debt for better cash flow," he says. 

Another increase could put further pressure on your budget, so it may be worth taking a closer look at your current loan. 

If you'd like a step-by-step checklist, see what to do if your mortgage repayments increase. 

Not sure where to start? We've put together a guide on how to negotiate a better home loan rate, along with practical ways to reduce your mortgage repayments. 

If your fixed-rate home loan is ending soon 

If you're currently on a fixed-rate mortgage, an RBA increase generally won't change your interest rate during your fixed period. However, things could look different once that period ends. 

Your loan will usually move to your lender's applicable variable revert rate unless you've arranged another option. Depending on the rate you're moving from and the rate available at the time, your repayments could change. 

Rather than waiting until your fixed period expires, it may be worth checking your expiry date, understanding your potential new repayments, and exploring the options available. 

Our fixed rate expiry calculator can help you get a clearer picture of what to expect. 

If you're buying a home with pre-approval 

Already have home loan pre-approval and wondering whether another rate rise could affect your property plans? It's a good question to ask, especially if you're still searching for the right home. 

When interest rates increase, lenders may reassess how much a borrower can comfortably afford to repay. Depending on your financial circumstances and the lender's assessment criteria, this could affect your borrowing capacity. 

Alexis says he helps customers understand how potential interest rate changes could affect their repayments and whether they can comfortably manage the loan after settlement. 

"For most of my customers who are property hunting, many aren't stretching to their maximum borrowing capacity. While repayments may be higher, they're already aware that variable interest rates can fluctuate." 

For other buyers, preparing for potential repayment changes can be an important part of the property search. 

Alya Manji, Franchisee at Aussie Hurstville, says she encourages customers to consider how higher rates could affect their budget before committing to a purchase. 

"A big consideration in my conversations with buyers is checking what their repayments could look like with a potential rate increase and using that as a buffer when planning their budget," Alya says. 

It's also worth remembering that pre-approval is generally conditional and doesn't guarantee final loan approval. 

Before making an offer on a property, consider checking whether your pre-approval is still valid and whether your borrowing capacity has changed. 

You can use our borrowing power calculator to explore different scenarios or speak with an Aussie Broker about your options. 

If you're struggling with your repayments 

If higher mortgage repayments are making it difficult to manage your household expenses, it may help to reach out for support sooner rather than later. 

Your lender's financial hardship team can explain what assistance may be available based on your circumstances. 

You can also contact the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007 for free, independent financial counselling. 

You don't have to wait until you've missed a repayment to ask about your options. 

You might also be interested in: What is mortgage stress and how can you manage it?  

How can an Aussie Broker help you prepare? 

With so much discussion around the RBA's next move, it can be difficult to know whether to wait, review your home loan, or explore other options. That's where having a local Aussie Broker in your corner may help. 

"Being aware of your interest rate is very important. Checking it should be part of your routine. It's a five-minute phone call with your broker, and if there's a better rate available, you can explore whether it's an option for you," says Alya. 

Want to see where your home loan stands? Chat with an Aussie Broker and explore your options with a free^ appointment. 

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